When you consider this staff allowed a league-worst 967 runs last season - how bad is that? - and the starting rotation isn't dramatically different, there's no reason to have confidence.

There is, however, one caveat that should make you change your mind: Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla are in contract years.

If Millwood pitches 180 innings, then his deal with the Rangers is automatically renewed for $12 million. He's pitched 172 2/3 and 168 2/3 innings the last two seasons after throwing 215 his first season in Texas .

The Rangers have a club option on Padilla, which means if he pitches well, the Rangers will be happy to pick it up for $12 million. If not, the club can buy him out for $1.75 million, and he'll be looking for employment.

It doesn't get any better than that for the team, the front office or the fans.

Trust me, you will get the absolute best Millwood and Padilla have to offer this season.

This doesn't mean Millwood and Padilla didn't give their best efforts in previous seasons. And it doesn't mean they didn't compete with vigor or prepare with intensity.

It just means they will be more focused than ever this season because millions of dollars are at stake.

Have a great year and keep the Rangers in contention until September, and another multiyear deal starting at $10 million probably awaits each of them. Flop this season, and there won't be nearly as many options for either, though it's not like either will be living like a pauper.

Think I'm making too much of this? Take a look at what happened the last time each pitcher was in a contract year.

Millwood was 9-11 for Cleveland in 2005, but he had a league-leading 2.86 ERA, made 30 starts and pitched 192 innings. He also pitched into the sixth inning 25 times.

The Rangers acquired Padilla before the 2006 season for pitcher Ricardo Rodriguez.

That year, Padilla set career-highs in several categories - wins (15), starts (33), quality starts (20) and strikeouts (156) - and went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA. After the season, they signed him to his current $33 million deal.

See, there is hope.

Millwood won only 10 games last season and had two stints on the DL. So did Padilla, who won a team-high 14 games.

Each is capable of pitching better. You'd better believe that will happen in 2009, which should mean more wins for the Rangers.

Texas isn't really supposed to threaten the Angels for the AL West title until next season, when Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland should be part of the starting rotation and young position players such as Elvis Andrus and Chris Davis will have a little more seasoning.

But if Millwood and Padilla do what they're supposed to do - win at least 15 games - the Rangers should play meaningful games in September and finish with at least 82 wins.

Perhaps even 85.

The defense should be improved, with Michael Young playing third instead of the eight players the Rangers used in 2008 and Andrus playing shortstop. And we know the Rangers are always going to hit, especially as it heats up at The Ballpark this summer.

Millwood is in the best shape since he arrived in Texas. Coincidence? Nope.

He knows what's at stake.

Last week, he tossed five innings for the first time this spring. He wanted to throw six.

When the coaching staff wouldn't let him, Millwood went down to the bullpen and threw some more.

That's just one tiny indication you're going to get everything Millwood and Padilla have this year, which should make Ron Washington a better manager.

Contract incentives?

Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla are each entering the final year of their contracts. Their statistics in previous contract years and their 162-game career averages:

Kevin Millwood

Year Team W L IP K ERA

2002 Atlanta 18 8 217 178 3.24

2004 Philadelphia 9 6 141 125 4.85

2005 Cleveland 9 11 192 146 2.86

162-game avg. 13 10 2062/3 164 4.06

Vicente Padilla

Year Team W L IP K ERA

2006 Rangers 15 10 200 156 4.50

162-game avg. 12 11 1812/3 125 4.31

Source: www.Baseball-reference.com

SEASON OPENER: vs. Cleveland, April 6, 12:05 p.m. (Ch. 4)